Báo cáo thị trường hạt tiêu và các loại gia vị khác tháng 6 năm 2026

01/07/2026

📈 PTEXIM Market Update: Week 26 - 2026

The global pepper market is officially entering a new cycle following a long period of oversupply! Here are the latest insights on supply, demand, and logistics from our Week 26 report.

🌱 Black Pepper Market: A Rebalancing Phase

Experts believe the industry is currently in a rebalancing phase as global supply continues to tighten.
Major producing countries, including Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia, are recording significant production declines due to the negative impacts of climate change.
As supply tightens, demand from key markets such as the US, Europe, and the Middle East is showing strong signs of recovery.
Domestic pepper prices experienced a range-bound week, returning to opening levels and closing stable at 139,000 VND/kg.

🕊️ Geopolitics & Purchasing Behaviors

A preliminary US-Iran ceasefire agreement has entered a 60-day negotiation window, reducing the immediate risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
While this news modestly improved market sentiment and sparked renewed interest from US and EU buyers, the agreement remains fragile.
Actual transaction volumes remained modest, with buyers preferring small spot-purchase commitments rather than locking in large forward contracts while they monitor the situation.

💵 Macroeconomics: US Federal Reserve Updates

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75%.
However, forward guidance projects at least one additional rate hike in the second half of 2026 due to US inflation sitting at 3.8%.
These higher-for-longer US rates maintain a stronger global USD, elevate financing costs for importers holding large inventories, and encourage a shorter "hand-to-mouth" purchase cycle.

🚢 Logistics Alert: Tight Capacity & Rising Costs

Container capacity remains extremely tight, fueled by strong US importer frontloading ahead of potential tariff changes.
Vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope due to unresolved threats in the Red Sea.
Carriers are expected to implement General Rate Increases (GRI) and Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) effective July 1, adding $300-$600 per TEU. We strongly advise booking container slots early before the peak-season surge.

✅ Regulatory Relief in the EU

The EU has postponed the adoption of its "omnibus" reform package regarding pesticide and maximum residue limits (MRLs) for imported food due to a lack of consensus.
This postponement temporarily reduces short-term compliance pressure for agricultural exports, including key products like pepper.